NOAA sees 81% odds of a historically strong El Nino by fall
Why it matters: A stronger El Nino can shift global rainfall, raise temperatures and suppress Atlantic hurricanes through winter.
An El Nino that emerged across the Pacific in June is rapidly strengthening and now has an 81% chance of reaching “very strong” levels between October and December, U.S. forecasters said. The U.S. Climate Prediction Center said the event would likely rank among the largest since records began in 1950 and has a 97% chance of lasting through early spring 2027. Sea surface temperatures in the Nino 3.4 region are already 1.2 degrees C above average. El Nino typically raises the odds of drought in Australia, wetter winters in the southern United States and East Africa, and fewer Atlantic storms, while adding to broader global warmth on top of human-caused climate change.