Why it matters: Lower output in Vietnam, the Philippines and India could lift food inflation as Chicago rice futures have climbed about 40% this year.
The drought is already disrupting rice planting and raising the risk of failed planting and lower harvests.
The 0-centimeter reading has held for two days, while upstream flow is being routed to irrigation to keep Kali Baru from drying out.
Why it matters: A stronger El Nino can shift global rainfall, raise temperatures and suppress Atlantic hurricanes through winter.
Feed corn stock remains at 188,000 tons, while chili, shallots, eggs and chicken are projected to stay in surplus all year.
The late-June heat wave was linked to thousands of deaths, while global sea surface temperatures in June also set a new record.
Series: Western Europe · Heatwave and Temperature Records · 2 chapters since Jul 9The report warns that budget pressures in Indonesia and rising farm costs could amplify land-clearing fires.
WMO projects El Nino could form before August and last through at least November 2026, with rice output at risk of falling 2%-8%.
What's next: Forecasters still expect warmer, drier weather from June to October as El Nino and a positive Indian Ocean Dipole build.
What's new: NOAA sees a 63% chance of a very strong event by winter, which could amplify heat, crop losses and weather shocks into 2027.
Why it matters: Forecasters see a 63% chance of a very strong event by November-January, raising risks of drought, crop losses and higher food prices.
New: odds of a moderate El Nino have reached 98 percent and a strong event 62 percent, well above prior forecasts below 20 percent.
What's new: The Reserve Bank of India now sees inflation at 5.1% in FY2027 and growth at 6.6%, as oil and rupee pressure build.